Keir Starmer is on the brink today after a disastrous by-election saw Labour routed by the Greens in one of its safest seats – and pushed into third place behind Reform.
No10 is bracing for a fresh onslaught from the PM’s critics following the worst possible result in Gorton & Denton.
The Greens had never won a Parliamentary by-election – or a seat in the North – but Hannah Spencer romped home with a 4,400 majority.
Despite flooding the area with ministers and 1,000 activists, Labour did not even have the consolation of second place with its candidate, trailing in behind Reform’s Matt Goodwin. Nigel Farage complained of ‘cheating’ after reports of so-called ‘family voting’ from independent observers.
Downing Street is hoping Sir Keir can front up the catastrophic outcome by appearing in front of cameras later.
But there are already furious recriminations going on, after the premier blocked hugely popular Manchester mayor Andy Burnham from being the candidate amid fears he would be a leadership rival in the Commons.
The result demonstrates that Zack Polanski’s ‘eco-populist’ Greens now present a real Left-wing challenge to Labour, despite a host of extreme policies including legalising hard drugs.
The apparent success of Ms Spencer’s focus on Gaza, with a significant Muslim vote in Gorton & Denton, will spread panic among Sir Keir’s MPs.
A jubilant Mr Polanski claimed this morning that the party is on track to win 100 seats at a general election.
Political scientists Professor Rob Ford said Labour was at risk of being crushed between the Left and the Right.
‘The number of Labour MPs who will now be worried about their prospects of re-election has just gone up very substantially,’ he told Sky News.
Hannah Spencer, the victorious Green by-election candidate, takes a selfie with party leader Zack Polanski
Ms Spencer, a plumber and local councillor, will become the Greens’ fifth MP in the House of Commons. She is pictured shaking hands with Labour’s defeated candidate Angeliki Stogia
Labour’s defeat in a former stronghold will spark fresh speculation about Sir Keir Starmer’s future as Prime Minister
Proving they now present a severe Left-wing challenge to Labour, the Greens picked up their first ever parliamentary by-election victory in the Greater Manchester seat
Ms Spencer secured 14,980 votes to win the seat with a 4,402-vote majority ahead of Reform candidate Matthew Goodwin (10,578 votes), and Labour’s Ms Stogia (9,364 votes)
Sir Keir is being branded a ‘lame duck leader’ by opponents, having barely survived a Labour coup attempt a fortnight ago.
The indignity will be especially personal as Sir Keir made a campaign visit to the seat on Monday – although he was carefully kept away from ordinary voters.
As the party staged a massive get-out-the-vote drive yesterday the premier was giving a speech in Newcastle, where schoolchildren were pictured struggling to stay awake.
Sir Keir’s premiership is already reeling from the Peter Mandelson scandal, with Labour MPs increasingly mutinous over their party’s dire poll ratings.
Labour won Gorton and Denton at the 2024 general election with more than half the vote.
But, less than two years on, the Greens overturned Labour’s majority of more than 13,000 votes to give themselves a fifth MP in the House of Commons.
Ms Spencer, a plumber, will become only the sixth-ever Green MP.
Mr Polanski said: ‘If we see a swing like this at the next general election, there will be a tidal wave of new Green MPs.’
She secured 14,980 votes to win the seat with a 4,402-vote majority ahead of Reform candidate Matthew Goodwin (10,578 votes), and Labour’s Angeliki Stogia (9,364 votes).
In her victory speech, Ms Spencer apologised to customers who have booked her in for plumbing jobs.
‘Now to my customers, I’m sorry, but I think I might have to cancel the work that you had booked in, because I’m heading to Parliament!’ she joked.
‘And when I get there, I will make space for everyone doing jobs like mine. We will finally get a seat at the table.’
She added that ‘life has changed’ for local communities.
‘Instead of working for a nice life, we’re working to line the pockets of billionaires. We are being bled dry,’ she said.
‘And I don’t think it’s extreme or radical to think working hard should get you a nice life. And I don’t think that if you’re not able to work that you should still have a nice life. I think that absolutely everybody should get a nice life.’
Mr Polanski said: ‘If we see a swing like this at the next general election, there will be a tidal wave of new Green MPs.
‘When I was elected ;eader of the Greens I said we were here to replace Labour and I meant it.’
But Reform leader Nigel Farage claimed the Gorton and Denton by-election was ‘a victory for sectarian voting and cheating’.
He added in a post on X: ‘Matt Goodwin was a great candidate for us. Roll on the elections on May 7th. It will be goodbye Starmer and goodbye to the Tory party.’
It came amid a furious row over allegations of ‘high levels’ of ‘family voting’ in the Greater Manchester contest.
Mr Goodwin said Reform had ’embarrassed Labour in one of their strongest seats’, adding: ‘I think if we can do this here, we can do this pretty much anywhere.’
He continued: ‘I think what you’ve seen is the emergence of a dangerous sectarianism in British politics. I think the Greens are riding a very dangerous wave.
‘I’m very concerned about the direction of the country. And I think many people are going to be watching this by-election, and they’re going to be feeling the same thing that I am, which is deep concern about where Britain is heading.
‘I think the progressives were told how to vote, and I think what you saw was a coalition of Islamists and woke progressives that came together to dominate a constituency.
‘And many people in this country will look at Gorton and Denton and be appalled by what they see.’
The Greens, led by ‘eco-populist’ Zack Polanski, pitched themselves during the by-election campaign as the only option for anti-Reform UK voters.
In the early hours of Friday, before the official result was announced, a deflated Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell admitted the Greens had ‘managed to win the argument that they were best placed’ to beat Mr Farage’s party.
‘I wanted Angeliki Stogia to be my colleague in Parliament,’ Ms Powell told Sky News.
‘But I think what is really clear is that there is a big majority in this constituency that hasn’t voted for Reform.
‘And on the day the Greens have managed to win that argument that they were best placed to do that.
‘But I’m not sure whether that would totally translate in a general election.’
As well as pitching themselves as the best anti-Reform option in the by-election, the Greens also attempted to appeal to the significant Muslim vote in Gorton and Denton by hammering Sir Keir and Labour over Gaza.
The seat is sharply divided in ethnicity, religion and deprivation – which made the outcome incredibly difficult to predict.
Responding to her party’s defeat, Labour chairwoman Anna Turley said: ‘This result is clearly disappointing.
‘By-elections are normally difficult for the party of government, and this election was no different.
‘We have had thousands of conversations over the last few weeks and we know the majority of voters here did not want the poisonous politics of Nigel Farage and Reform.
‘We will continue to deliver a programme for government that tackles the cost of living crisis families are facing, creates opportunities for young people and invests in our public services.
‘The politics of anger and easy answers offered by the Greens and Reform won’t deliver this.
‘We will move forwards with a relentless focus on delivering the renewal communities across Britain want to see.’
A Conservative spokesman said: ‘Keir Starmer has killed the Labour Party.
‘In losing one of Labour’s safest seats, in a constituency that has returned Labour MPs for almost a century, Starmer has shown he no longer commands the support of Labour voters and is now a lame duck leader.’
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage claimed the Gorton and Denton by-election was ‘a victory for sectarian voting and cheating’
A glum-looking Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell is pictured watching on as votes are counted in the Gorton and Denton by-election
Prior to the result being announced in the early hours of Friday, a furious row broke out over claims of ‘high levels’ of illegal ‘family voting’.
Democracy Volunteers, who sent accredited observers across Gorton and Denton on Thursday, expressed fears about major breaches of electoral law.
Family voting is where a voter is accompanied by another person into or near polling booths with the intention of influencing their vote.
Tougher legislation, known as the Ballot Secrecy Act, was introduced in 2023 in a bid to clamp down on the practice.
It made it more clearly an offence for someone to accompany a voter to a polling booth or position themselves nearby with the intention of influencing a voter.
In a statement issued as polls closed on Thursday night, Democracy Volunteers said they had seen ‘the highest levels of family voting at any election in our 10-year history of observing elections in the UK’.
But Manchester City Council insisted ‘no such issues have been reported’.
Labour chair Anna Turley said the reports of family voting were ‘extremely worrying and concerning’.
Mr Farage said it ‘raises serious questions about the integrity of the democratic process in predominantly Muslim areas’.
Mr Polanski told BBC Newsnight: ‘I think it’s important that there’s full transparency about the democratic process.
‘And if the recommendation is that there should be an inquiry or further steps then yes I’d support that.’
Labour’s defeated candidate Ms Stogia is pictured arriving at the result declaration alongside Ms Powell and Stretford and Urmston MP Andrew Western
Reform UK’s by-election candidate Matthew Goodwin is also pictured arriving at the result declaration
A final photocall for Ms Stogia, a local councillor, on Thursday saw her join Ms Powell and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham
Nigel Farage visited Gorton and Denton on Wednesday night, speaking to voters alongside Mr Goodwin
A final photocall for Ms Stogia on Thursday saw her join forces with Ms Powell and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham.
In pouring rain in Gorton as the campaign counted down to its final hours, the three stepped onto a campaign bus along with activists for a final round of door-knocking.
Mr Burnham said he was not ‘sorry’ he was not the by-election candidate himself, with his bid to contest the seat for Labour dramatically blocked by Sir Keir last month.
‘No, we’ve got a brilliant candidate, and she hasn’t put a foot wrong,’ he said. ‘She’s been out every day. She’s done us proud.’
The Greater Manchester mayor is widely seen as a potential leadership challenger to Sir Keir should he return to Westminster as an MP.
Mr Farage visited Gorton and Denton on Wednesday night, speaking to voters alongside Reform candidate Matthew Goodwin.
Ahead of polls opening at 7am on Thursday, Mr Farage said: ‘Our message on election day is clear.
‘The Prime Minister is panicking and knows he has broken his promises to the British people. Vote Reform to ditch Starmer.’
The PM made a token visit to the constituency on Monday but was humiliatingly kept away from ordinary voters amid dire poll ratings.
The premier barely survived a leadership coup a fortnight ago, with the Cabinet only rallying round at the last moment.
In his final message to voters, Sir Keir sought to woo wavering Labour voters by painting the contest as a straight fight between his party and Reform.
He said: ‘The choice at today’s by-election could not be more stark. Unity or division.
‘Driving down the cost of living with Labour or driving a wedge between communities under Reform.
‘Moving forwards together, or opening up anger and division that holds our country back.
‘Reform’s Matthew Goodwin thinks people who aren’t white can’t be English and wants women who choose not to have children to pay more tax.
‘Vote Labour in Gorton and Denton today to send him and his toxic politics packing.’
The contest in Manchester had been beset by allegations of dirty tricks, with parties repeatedly referring each other’s candidates to the police.
In the latest twist, the Greens accused Labour of handing out leaflets from an ‘entirely fictitious’ tactical voting organisation urging voters to back Sir Keir’s party.
The leaflets from ‘Tactical Choice’ carried a supposed poll that put Labour and Reform neck-and-neck when ‘not including polling funded by Green Party donors’.
They added: ‘Based on a new prediction published in the last 24 hours we are recommending voting Labour.’
A Green Party spokesman said: ‘In a final throw of desperation, Labour have made up an entirely fictitious organisation called ‘Tactical Choice’ referencing them on their final leaflet.
‘They’ve had to make this up because every actual tactical voting organisation has endorsed the Green Party as the best hope to keep Reform out in this election.’
For its part, Labour accused the Greens of ‘whipping up hatred’ over Gaza in parts of the constituency with a large Muslim population.
The party even put out a campaign video in Urdu which featured images of David Lammy shaking hands with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu.
Ms Powell said the Green campaign had been ‘characterised by misinformation, with dodgy bar charts’.
However, Labour put out a leaflet of its own with a bar chart showing it neck-and-neck with Reform – but omitting the Greens in the lead.
