A photo of the Champions League trophy
The Champions League returns this week and some of Europe’s biggest names will be back in action earlier than they would have hoped.
From September to January, 36 teams each played eight different opponents with the top eight leaping into the last 16, while the bottom 12 have been eliminated.
Those that finished between ninth and 24th now have a two-legged knockout play-off to navigate with the eight winners advancing to the last 16.
Reigning European champions Paris St-Germain are among those returning, so too Inter Milan, the team they beat in the 2025 final.
Fifteen-time European winners Real Madrid also finished outside the top eight, as did other previous champions in Juventus, Borussia Dortmund and Benfica.
No side qualified for the play-offs in more dramatic style than Jose Mourinho’s Benfica, who were seconds away from elimination before goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scored in the eighth minute of stoppage time to send them through.
That came in a 4-2 victory against Real Madrid, and Alvaro Arbeloa’s team have an instant chance for revenge as the two sides meet each other in the play-offs.
Five of the six English entrants ended in the top eight – Arsenal came first with eight wins from eight games, while Liverpool were third, Tottenham fourth, Chelsea sixth and Manchester City eighth.
That means the only English representation in the Champions League over the next two weeks will be Newcastle United, who will fancy their chances of defeating Azerbaijani club Qarabag, a side thrashed 6-0 by Liverpool in January.
PSG have to take the long route to glory again
So if you finish outside the top eight and have to face another two matches, does that wreck your chances of Champions League glory?
As PSG spectacularly proved last season, it certainly does not.
In 2024-25, Luis Enrique’s side were facing Champions League elimination when 2-0 down at home to Manchester City on matchday seven of the league phase.
But PSG won 4-2 and then defeated Stuttgart 4-1 in another must-win tie to finish 15th in the league. They then crushed fellow Ligue 1 side Brest 10-0 on aggregate in the knockout play-offs, defeated Liverpool on penalties in the last 16, got past Aston Villa and Arsenal in the quarter-finals and semi-finals respectively before thrashing Inter 5-0 in the final.
PSG face Monaco in this season’s play-offs with Luis Enrique unconcerned by the extra matches, saying his side can win back-to-back Champions League trophies.
“If any team is ready for the play-offs, it is us,” he said.
“We knew it was a possibility that we might have to go into the play-offs. We will have to take the long route, but I don’t think anyone else can be considered favourites more than us.”
The other European club competitions also adopted similar formats last season, with Real Betis reaching the Conference League final, losing 4-1 to Chelsea, despite coming 15th in the league phase.
However, it was not the same in the Europa League.
Seven of the top eight reached the quarter-finals with fourth-placed Tottenham beating third-placed Manchester United in the final.
Despite having two extra matches, football data specialists Opta rate PSG’s chances of winning the Champions League higher than top-eight finishers Tottenham and Sporting.
Newcastle and Inter Milan are rated as having a 3% chance of lifting the trophy, the same as Spurs.
Following a perfect league phase, table-toppers Arsenal are judged to have a 30% chance of becoming European champions for the first time.
However, they will be wary of what happened to Liverpool last season after Arne Slot’s side finished top of the league, only to then run into PSG at the last-16 phase and be eliminated.
Bayern Munich, who cannot meet Arsenal until the final, are given a 14% chance, followed by both Manchester City and Liverpool on 10%, then Chelsea and Barcelona on 7%.
