The nation is closing 2025 with its strongest macroeconomic footing in years, setting up the country as an attractive ‘sweet spot’ for portfolio investors heading into 2026 as inflation retreats to a single digit, growth stabilises above 5 percent and the central bank pivots decisively toward a pro-growth stance.
Economic projections point to average growth of about 5.6 percent in 2026, supported by easing financial conditions and improving investor confidence. Inflation is expected to settle between 5 and 6 percent, while external buffers are strengthening despite a bearish outlook for oil prices.
Analysts expect weaker crude receipts to be partly offset by stronger gold export earnings, underpinning reserves and the balance of payments.
Much of the reset in 2025 was driven by policy moves from the finance ministry with strong fiscal consolidation and the Bank of Ghana, which recently overhauled its liquidity management framework and accelerated monetary easing as disinflation outpaced expectations.
In November, the Monetary Policy Committee cut its benchmark rate by 350 basis points to 18 percent, extending total cuts for the year to 1,000 basis points.
The decision followed a sharp fall in headline inflation to 8 percent in October and a further fall to 6.3 percent in November – the lowest level in recent years – while Treasury yields remained in double digits, pushing real interest rates to multi-year highs. Governor Johnson Pandit Asiama said the committee judged that “prevailing high real interest rates provide scope for easing policy to further boost the growth recovery”, noting inflation is now well within the medium-term target band.
The rate cut was paired with a structural shift in liquidity operations. The central bank reinstated the 14-day bill as its main open market operations instrument, retiring the longer 56-day and 273-day bills that had dominated liquidity absorption in recent years.
Dr Asiama described the move as a return to the shorter end of the market, aimed at improving monetary transmission and market functioning.
On the domestic front, growth gained momentum through the year. The economy expanded by 5.5 percent in the third quarter, slightly slower than the 7 percent recorded a year earlier but consistent with a steady recovery path. Data from the Ghana Statistical Service showed strong contributions from agriculture and services, while oil and gas continued to weigh on industrial output.
The solid third-quarter showing followed a 6.3 percent expansion in the year’s first half. Monthly indicators released by the statistical office pointed to provisional growth of 5.1 percent in August, up from 4.9 percent a year earlier – again driven by services and agriculture.
Business activity indicators also improved. The central bank’s Composite Index of Economic Activity rose by 9.6 percent at the end of September, compared with 2.9 percent over the same period in 2024; reflecting gains in industrial production, trade, private sector credit and consumption.
Confidence surveys conducted in October signalled sustained optimism while the Purchasing Managers’ Index improved on the back of new orders, suggesting the negative output gap is narrowing.
Disinflation was one of the clearest themes of 2025. Headline inflation fell steadily from 23.5 percent in January to 6.3 percent in November, with both food and non-food inflation returning to single digits for the first time since mid-2021.
Core inflation measures also declined, pointing to easing underlying price pressures and well-anchored expectations among consumers, businesses and banks. Central bank forecasts suggest inflation will remain within the 6 to10 percent target range into early 2026.
Lower inflation and policy easing translated into a broad decline in interest rates. The interbank weighted average rate fell to 21 percent in October from 27.7 percent a year earlier. T
he 91-day Treasury bill rate eased to 10.6 percent from 25.8 percent, while average bank lending rates dropped to 22.2 percent from 30.5 percent. Private sector credit growth – which had been contracting earlier in the year – turned positive, reaching 5.4 percent in real terms by October.
Fiscal performance also improved. Over the first nine months, the overall fiscal deficit narrowed to 1.5 percent of GDP on a commitment basis, better than the 3.2 percent target, supported by restrained spending.
Public debt fell sharply to 45 percent of GDP by end-October from 61.8 percent at the end of 2024, helped by debt management measures, lower borrowing costs and currency appreciation.
Banks remained profitable and well capitalised, with the non-performing loan ratio declining to 19.5 percent from 22.7 percent a year earlier although credit risks remain elevated.
Externally, Ghana recorded a current account surplus of US$3.8billion in the first nine months, supported by higher gold and cocoa exports and strong remittance inflows. Reserves rose to US$11.4billion, covering nearly five months of imports, while the cedi appreciated more than 32 percent against the US dollar by late November.
Building on the broad-based confidence, Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) also recorded a remarkable year in 2025 with the Composite Index (GSE-CI) surging to 79.1 percent and closing around 8,755.59 points as of mid‑trading on Monday, December 22, 2025.
The market’s rally has been led predominantly by the financial sector, with GSE’s Financial Stock Index outperforming the broader market with gains near 95 percent year‑to‑date.
Positive investor sentiment, sustained trading activity and robust performances across banking, consumer, telecom and energy stocks underpinned the market’s strong showing throughout the year.
The year also saw notable developments in market structure, including the successful listing of First Atlantic Bank (FAB) which underscored continued investor appetite for new equity offerings.
Ghana’s market has consistently ranked among the top-performing exchanges in Africa for 2025, reflecting both the vibrancy of domestic capital markets and increasing confidence of local and regional investors. Market capitalisation soared past GH¢170billion, marking 2025 as one of the most prosperous years for GSE in its recent history.
The fixed‑income market also staged a notable recovery and sustained robust activity, with government securities continuing to anchor trading volumes and investor interest.
Weekly and monthly data showed trading boosts, including volumes doubling to over GH¢4billion in late November and individual sessions approaching nearly GH¢1billion in turnover – driven largely by Treasury bills and government bonds across multiple maturities.
Cumulative turnover for the year reinforced this rebound from the post‑DDEP trough, with volumes on course to approach or exceed pre‑restructuring levels. However, concerns remain over the low corporate bond activity.
The mobile money sub-sector also continued its rapid expansion, cementing its role as a cornerstone of the country’s digital economy. According to BoG data, the total value of mobile‑money transactions reached approximately GH¢3.6trillion in the first ten months of the year – up sharply from GH¢2.368trillion in the same period of 2024 due to strong year‑on‑year growth and rising adoption across consumer and business use cases.
Registered mobile money accounts climbed to around 79.1 million, supported by nearly 950 000 registered agents – demonstrating the depth of penetration into both urban and rural markets. Interoperability between platforms also strengthened, with cross‑platform transfers contributing materially to the sector’s overall throughput.
Despite occasional monthly fluctuations in activity, mobile money remained a central driver of financial inclusion and digital payments innovation in Ghana. Abolition of the e‑levy and continued investment by fintech players and telecom operators have buoyed transaction volumes, while collaborations between payment technology firms and aggregators have broadened access points for merchants and consumers alike.
The domestic fintech ecosystem captured meaningful investor attention in 2025, with several high‑profile capital raises underscoring the sector’s growing maturity and regional appeal.
Notable among these was Affinity Africa’s US$8million seed round led by European venture firms, which highlighted investor confidence in platforms targetting underserved and unbanked populations with mobile‑first financial services.
Broader startup funding data for Ghana shows a bubbly funding environment, with fintech names such as OZÉ – focused on embedded financial tools for SMEs – among the headline recipients of equity investment alongside other sectors like agritech and logistics
With inflation risks moderating, reserves building and growth recovering, policymakers see room to support activity further. For investors, the combination of macro stability, easing rates and improving fundamentals has positioned Ghana as a standout frontier market heading into 2026.
