- Polling from late July to early September remains largely unchanged
- Results suggest Trump’s support holds strong while Harris’ ‘honeymoon’ fades
With just two months until Election Day, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump enter the final stretch with a nonsignificant polling split.
But despite the tiny gap, the results show a shifting back towards the former president after Harris entered the race at the end of July.
Just two days until the presidential nominees’ first debate, a New York Times/Siena College poll puts Trump 1 percent ahead of the vice president – 48 percent to 47 percent – within the survey’s 3-point margin of error.
The latest was conducted September 3-6 and is largely unchanged from the same national survey of likely voters taken in late July after President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign and endorsed his No. 2.
Notably, the polling suggests that despite Harris’ ‘honeymoon phase,’ support for Trump’s bid for a second, nonconsecutive White House term remains strong.
Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by one point in latest NYT/Siena Polling
The national outcome is largely in-line with how Americans are feeling in the seven swing states key to winning the 2024 election.
Of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the preference of Trump and Harris still falls within the margin of error of likely voters and they are even tied in some of the states.
Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina at 48 percent each.
Then Harris squeaks ahead Pennsylvania by 1 point and 2 points in fellow rustbelt battlegrounds of Michigan and Wisconsin.
Overall, the latest results reveal a tight race where the outcome still alludes some of the most experienced political scientists, pollsters and experts in the homestretch of the election.
On Tuesday, September 10, Harris and Trump will meet on stage in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania for a debate hosted by ABC News – their first head-to-head.
Donald Trump’s support is holding strong in national polling
But when broken down by battleground swing states, Trump is either tied with Harris or the vice president pulls ahead by one or two points
Biden’s debate with Trump in late June is ultimately what led to the President’s demise in the 2024 election because the disastrous performance led to a chorus of calls from within the Democratic Party for him to step aside for Harris to take over.
There are only eight weeks until Election Day on November 5 in the shortest presidential race in modern American history after Harris entered the race on July 21.
Many MAGA supporters and Republicans claim that Harris’ polling and enthusiasm bump are part of a honeymoon phase and feel it will wear off before voters cast their ballots. But mail-in ballots are already going out to voters in some states for early and absentee voting.