Fears that Britain could be plunged into a de facto January lockdown were raised today because so many Britons will be catching Omicron and forced off work.
Boris Johnson‘s spokesperson said it was ‘valid’ to assume the UK could face a million daily cases of the super-mutant strain by next month, the equivalent of one in every 66 Britons catching the disease each day.
Chief medical officer Chris Whitty is said to have warned Cabinet that such astronomical infection rates will spark staff shortages in pubs, restaurants and shops during a stark update on the Covid situation this afternoon.
There are now concerns of a repeat of the ‘Pingdemic’ that shut down swathes of the economy over summer, only on a much wider scale because of how infectious the new strain is compared to Delta.
Professor Whitty also warned that the UK was braced for a ‘significant increase in hospitalisations’. NHS bosses have ordered hospitals to discharge as many patients as possible off wards and into care homes and even hotels to handle the predicted Omicron surge.
Hospitals are on red alert in the wake of shocking modelling by Government scientists that warned admissions could exceed levels seen during the darkest days of the nation’s second wave last January, when 4,000 infected patients were needing medical care every day.
Yet, the first major real-world study in South Africa today found that Omicron is causing a third fewer hospital admissions than Delta and that just two doses of Pfizer provides 70 per cent protection against severe illness.
Doctors in the South African epicentre have accused Britain of panicking, given that hospital admissions there are running at just 380 per day, on average, and there are signs the outbreak has peaked already.
It came as the Department of Health reported 59,610 overall coronavirus cases in the past 24 hours, up more than 30 per cent in a week and the highest number since the peak of the second wave on January 9.
Daily deaths — which are a lagging indicator — were down 17 per cent in a week with 150 victims today, while latest hospital data shows there were 793 last Friday, up 11 per cent.
Public health officials estimate the true number of daily Omicron infections is around 200,000 and that the mutant virus is doubling every two days, based on mathematical modelling that is widely disputed.
Dr Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser at the UK Health Security Agency, said vaccine passports, working from home and other curbs to tackle Omicron will be needed for ‘the next four to eight weeks’ to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed.
Health chiefs are already calling for tighter restrictions in London — where Omicron is already dominant — and Scotland today tightened its curbs, limiting social mixing to three households in the run up to Christmas.
Meanwhile, in a letter to healthcare providers published late last night, NHS England said all patients in hospital beds should be discharged now if it is ‘safe’ to do so to make room for Omicron patients.
Nurses are being flown in from Spain and Greece to offer temporary assistance at hotels that are being converted into care sites over Christmas to help deal with the oncoming crisis, it was also revealed today.
But the NHS guidance did not stipulate how exactly patients would be deemed ‘medically fit’ enough to be discharged, leaving the decision in the hands of medics.
And there are fears returning elderly patients to care homes could put others at risk after former Health Secretary Matt Hancock’s decision not to test all residents before they were discharged last year was blamed for the deaths of thousands.
Care England, which represents the biggest private chains, told MailOnline the NHS must ensure all patients are ‘properly tested’ this time round and warned more staff are needed at some homes to make the scheme work.
It comes after Sajid Javid admitted even urgent operations may have to be cancelled in order to ramp up No10’s booster drive, which aims to offer a vital third dose to all adults by the end of the month.
Ministers have already warned anyone wanting to see their family doctor face-to-face for a ‘routine’ appointment will be forced to wait until the New Year so GPs can focus on delivering booster jabs. Doctors called for clear messaging on what is considered ‘urgent’, telling patients not to come in with rashes or common colds.
Cancer charities and patients’ rights groups today slammed the policy as a ‘hammer blow’ for those needing care, adding delays in seeing a GP can mean diagnoses are missed in the vital early stages of the disease. MacMillan said it fears the pivoting of the NHS to prioritising Covid will have ‘unintended consequences’.
The NHS surgery backlog is already at a record high of nearly 6million, with the crisis fuelled by hospitals being forced to cancel tens of thousands of operations during the pandemic.
Critics accused the NHS of having transformed into the ‘National Covid Service’ in the early days of the outbreak, sacrificing other elements of health care.
Meanwhile, the Omicron Covid variant spreading at a ferocious pace in the UK has become dominant in London barely two weeks after it was first detected, health chiefs revealed today.
Professor Kevin Fenton, the capital’s director of public health, said data suggested the super-strain was already behind at least one in every two new infections in the city, up from 44 per cent just yesterday.
As the country’s major transport hub, London quickly became England’s Omicron epicentre after South Africa first raised the alarm on November 24. It is thought to have been seeded in the capital by travellers flying into the UK.
The capital’s Covid infection rate has spiralled to its highest level since January when stringent curbs were in place, rising 55 per cent in a fortnight from 347 to 537 cases per 100,000 people.
And hospitalisations in the city have risen by 50 per cent over the same period, from 90 to 140 admissions a day on average. Deaths remain flat but it can take up to a month for fatalities to start rising due to the time it takes to fall seriously ill.
The above maps show areas where the Omicron Covid variant has been detected in England over the two weeks to November 20 (left), and to December 4 (right). Areas where the variant has been detected are not coloured yellow. It shows how it has gone from just one local authority, to about half of the country. Areas with darker colours have detected more cases
The above graph shows the seven-day average for hospital admissions in different regions of England. It reveals that in London (orange) there has been a steady increase
This graph shows the Covid infection rate per 100,000 people in England’s regions. It also shows there has been a rapid uptick in London (red) while cases remain largely flat in other regions
The above graph shows how Omicron cases are rising across England’s regions. PCRs search for three specific genes to tell whether someone has Covid, but with Omicron one of the genes is so mutated – the S-gene – that it does not show up with the tests. Cases with this gene missing are coloured purple above, with the graph showing their numbers quickly increasing
The above graph shows the proportion of cases detected that did and did not have a confirmed S-gene. PCRs search for three specific genes to tell whether someone has Covid, but with Omicron one of the genes is so mutated – the S-gene – that it does not show up. This allows scientists to quickly tell which cases are likely Delta (green) and Omicron (purple)
Nationally, Omicron is behind one in every five cases but is expected to outstrip Delta before the New Year. For comparison, it took Delta almost two months to take over from the Alpha variant. Omicron is also spreading very quickly in Scotland and South Northamptonshire, data shows.
A spokesman for London’s mayor suggested today they would back controversial local lockdown restrictions in the capital, saying it was better to ‘act now’ rather than wait for the virus to spiral out of control.
But Tory representatives called on ministers to rely on ‘strong vaccine protection’ and ramp up the booster drive, rather than curb people’s daily lives.
Nicola Sturgeon today told Scots they could no longer mix in groups bigger than three households, and said social distancing was to return in shops and pubs because of surging Omicron numbers there. But the First Minister said the rule would be relaxed for Christmas Day and there was no reason to cancel plans.
The surging cases in the capital and calls for more restrictions have echoes of last winter when London was the first place to be locked down in the run up to Christmas.
It comes as a major study today suggested that two doses of Pfizer’s vaccine still provides 70 per cent protection against hospital admission and death from Omicron, compared to 93 per cent for Delta.
The first real-world study in South Africa also estimated the risk of hospitalisation was a fifth lower than with Delta and 29 per cent lower than the original virus.
The findings lend weight to the theory that the ultra-infectious variant is weaker than previous strains, something which doctors on the ground in South Africa have been claiming for weeks.
Nicola Sturgeon re-introduced social distancing and asked Scots to cut down on socialising in the run up to Christmas today.
Pubs, restaurants and shops will have to take measures to avoid crowding and queues, the First Minister told Holyrood.
Additionally she asked Scots to limit indoor mixing to just three households. While the advice will not be enforceable in law, Ms Sturgeon announced that allowing staff to work from home where possible will again become a legal duty on employers.
Ms Sturgeon confirmed that she was not seeking to put restrictions on festive events at Christmas itself, although she added that ‘keeping your celebrations as small as family circumstances allow is sensible’.
‘My key request today is this: before and immediately after Christmas, please minimise your social mixing with other households as much as you can,’ she told the Scottish Parliament.
‘However, if you do plan on socialising, either at home or in indoor public places, we are asking that you limit the number of households represented in your group to a maximum of three. And make sure you test before you go.’
Officials who looked at 78,000 Omicron cases in the past month found t he risk of hospitalisation was a fifth lower than with Delta (in green) and 29 per cent lower than the original virus (dark blue). Omicron is shown in brown and the original South African ‘Beta’ variant in light blue. Children appeared to have a 20 per cent higher risk of hospital admission with complications during the new wave than the initial outbreak, despite the numbers still being tiny
As a crude rate, Omicron is currently causing a third fewer hospital admissions than Delta did during its entire wave — 38 admissions per 1,000 Omicron cases, compared to 101 per 1,000 for Delta
The study also found that two doses of Pfizer’s vaccine still provides 70 per cent protection against hospital admission or death from Omicron, compared to 93 per cent for Delta
Waning immunity from two Pfizer doses was found to offer just 33 per cent protection against Omicron infection, explaining why the country has seen a meteoric rise in case numbers
She also lashed out at Boris Johnson, complaining that it was ‘not acceptable’ that there was no additional funding yet available from the UK Government to support businesses affected by the measures she is introducing.
The changes – which could well be followed by similar moves in Wales – will further increase the pressure on Boris Johnson in England, with London, like Scotland, an omicron hotspot.
Calls have been made for the introduction of further restrictions in the capital, with the super mutant variant now responsible for half of cases.
The city is still the region of England with the fastest-growing Covid outbreak, according to Government data, with cases growing by up to 48 per cent a week in the worst-hit boroughs.
NHS leaders said No10 needs to be prepared to introduce stricter curbs than the current Plan B if Omicron is on the brink of overwhelming the NHS.
Mr Johnson warned his Cabinet this morning that a ‘huge spike’ of Omicron is coming, according to Downing Street.
But the Prime Minister already faces a Tory rebellion over introducing mandatory face masks and vaccine passports for some venues, measures already in place in Scotland.
Scores of Conservatives have vowed to defy the government whip when new regulations rubber-stamping Covid passes for nightclubs and major events, mandatory vaccination for health staff, and mask use come before the Commons.
Dominic Raab risked inflaming the tensions in interviews this morning as he dismissed ‘overstated’ criticism about the measures to combat the Omicron strain.
But the scale of the rebellion means the embattled PM will almost certainly have to rely on Labour to get the measures through – despite in theory having an 80-strong Commons majority. Several ministerial aides are threatening to quit rather than back the government.
Ministers are said to be examining plans for a further round of restrictions in England that would push it closer towards a lockdown and are sure to watch Ms Sturgeon’s announcement with interest and trepidation.
Meanwhile Britain’s booster drive to beat the Omicron super-variant has been mired in chaos after more than 4.4million attempts were made to book top-up shots on the NHS website and furious GPs warned they had run out of doses.
Health chiefs said 545,000 appointments were secured by 8pm last night, even after the website crashed because so many people logged on. This morning Britons were stuck in up to an hour long queues.
But GPs complained they would not have enough jabs for everyone after being given until 9am to order stocks to meet Boris Johnson’s December 31 ‘boosted or bust’ deadline.