Rishi Sunak is facing a political storm today after net immigration to the UK soared to a record high of 504,000 in the year to June.
The extraordinary figure – roughly equivalent to the population of Liverpool – is nearly three times that for the previous 12 month period.
Officials pointed out the increase has been driven by hundreds of thousands of refugees from Afghanistan, Hong Kong and Ukraine being given the right to live in the UK – alongside the end of Covid travel restrictions and a rise in student numbers.
They also stressed that the figures are not directly comparable with previous years, as methodology has changed dramatically.
However, the numbers will spark alarm in government, with levels seemingly far above the highs seen before the Brexit referendum. Migration from the EU was actually negative over the year, offsetting the arrivals from the rest of the world.
Home Secretary Suella Braverman has signalled her ambition to meet the long-standing Tory goal of bringing net annual migration down to the ‘tens of thousands’.
Downing Street said Rishi Sunak wants to reduce overall net migration but pointed to ‘unique and unprecedented circumstances’.
Instead he has been focusing on illegal immigration and the Channel migrants crisis, while indicating that legal routes might be opened up to plug skills shortages.
Asylum applications are not included in the headline migration statistics.
Separate Home Office data released today show there were 72,027 asylum claims in the year ending September 2022, double the number in 2019 and a peak since 2003.
The number is far higher than during the European migrant crisis, which saw a rise to 36,546 in the year ending June 2016.
The historic figures mean that the UK is seeing record immigration combined with a labour shortage, as vacancies outnumber those seeking work, and wages falling in real terms.
According to the ONS, net long-term migration is the highest since it began recording figures in 1964.
The numbers classed as economically inactive – including through illness – have hit new highs following the pandemic.
Officials said the increase has been driven by hundreds of thousands of refugees from Afghanistan, Hong Kong and Ukraine being given the right to live in the UK
Home Secretary Suella Braverman has signalled her ambition to meet the long-standing Tory goal of bringing net annual migration down to the ‘tens of thousands’
A total of 1.1million people are likely to have migrated to the UK in the year to June, the majority – 704,000 – from outside the EU.
By contrast, 560,000 people are estimated to have migrated from the UK in the same period, almost half of them – 275,000 – going back to the EU.
The imbalance means that, while far more non-EU nationals are likely to have arrived in the UK than left during these 12 months, the reverse is true for EU nationals, with more leaving than arriving.
The net long-term immigration figure of 504,000 for the year to June compares with the 173,000 estimate for the 12 months to June 2021.
Explaining the dramatic rise in net migration, the Office of National Statistics said it was down to a ‘unique’ set of factors.
Alongside 267,000 visas for people from Ukraine, Afghanistan and Hong Kong, there has also been a large rise in the number of students from outside the EU.
Data shows 476,389 sponsored study visas were issued in the year ending September, a rise of 77 per cent compared to 2019, during the pandemic.
A total of 127,731 of these visas went to Indians – meaning they have overtaken China to become the most common nationality for students in the UK.
The number of people claiming asylum in the UK in the year to June was 72,027, close to the levels seen at the last peak twenty years ago.
The PM’s official spokesman said ‘unprecedented and unique circumstances’ had caused the rise.
He said Home Office statistics show the UK helped to safety more than 144,000 people from Hong Kong, 144,600 from Ukraine and 22,000 from Afghanistan.
‘The Prime Minister is fully committed to bringing overall numbers down,’ the spokesman said.
‘There are some unprecedented and unique circumstances which are having a significant impact on these statistics.
‘The Prime Minister has said he wants net migration to reduce, he has not put a specific timeframe on that.’
Ministers have been under intense pressure to get a grip on Britain’s borders after the Conservative Party’s 2019 manifesto pledge to reduce net migration.
Ms Braverman yesterday said ‘we’ve lost control of our borders’ as she blamed economic migrants ‘who exploit the generosity of the British people’ for the Channel migration crisis.
The ONS described the period covered by the latest figures as ‘unique’.
Because there are a number of reasons behind the rise, many of them unconnected, it is too early to say whether the trend will continue.
Jay Lindop, ONS deputy director of the centre for international migration, said: ‘A series of world events have impacted international migration patterns in the 12 months to June 2022. Taken together these were unprecedented.
‘These include the end of lockdown restrictions in the UK, the first full period following transition from the EU, the war in Ukraine, the resettlement of Afghans and the new visa route for Hong Kong British nationals, which have all contributed to the record levels of long-term immigration we have seen.
‘Migration from non-EU countries, specifically students, is driving this rise. With the lifting of travel restrictions in 2021, more students arrived in the UK after studying remotely during the Covid-19 pandemic.
‘However, there has also been a large increase in the number of people migrating for a range of other reasons. This includes people arriving for humanitarian protection, such as those coming from Ukraine, as well as for family reasons.
‘The many factors independent of each other contributing to migration at this time mean it is too early to say whether this picture will be sustained.’
Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said: ‘All the forecasts suggested that migration would fall as a result of the post-Brexit immigration scheme, which greatly restricted the options for EU citizens to move to the UK. And indeed, EU net migration remains negative.
The ONS figures showed immigration topped a million in the year to June, with a major factor visas granted for ‘other’ routes such as fleeing Ukraine, Afghanistan and Hong Kong
‘But non-EU migration has risen, primarily not because of the policies designed to replace EU free movement. The humanitarian routes for Ukraine and Hong Kong and a rebound in international students have played the largest role in boosting immigration levels.
‘These unusually high levels of net migration result from a unique set of circumstances following the war in Ukraine and the recovery from the Covid-19 crisis.
‘We cannot assume they represent a ‘new normal’, and it would be rash to take major policy decisions based only on these numbers.
‘Some of the most important contributors to non-EU immigration are not expected to continue indefinitely, such as the arrival of Ukrainians, and emigration is expected to rise in coming years.