National Grid warns electricity supplies will be tight this year

Britain faces electricity shortages this winter after a fire disrupted a vital cable bringing power from France – loading fresh pressure onto a system that is already struggling due to high demand and limited supply. 

Industry leaders called for ‘urgent action’ after the National Grid warned electricity supplies would be ‘tight’ amid a boom in the price of natural gas – which the UK relies on to generate 42% of its power. 

It is the latest sign of a grim winter outlook for the country caused by dramatically rising inflation and a supply chain crisis threatening shortages of food including season favourites such as gammon, pigs in blankets and turkey.   

The fire at a connector station in Kent last month had cut the amount of energy that can be imported via the 1FA undersea cable – which runs under the English Channel to Calais – by half. 

By October 23, 1GW (gigawatts) of power should be restored following repairs, but the full capacity of 2GW will not be reached until more work due to last until March next year. 

Gas is in high demand due to the reopening of the global economy, colder temperatures, and reduced wind and solar output due to unfavourable conditions. Meanwhile, Russia – a major exporter – has slashed the amount it sends to Europe.

However, in a separate winter gas outlook also published today, National Grid insisted Britain has enough gas supply capacity to meet demand and avoid blackouts. 

This graphic – from today’s National Grid report and covering September this year – shows how Britain imports far more energy from abroad than it exports 

Coal now produces just 2% of the UK’s energy – with 40% of it coming from zero carbon sources following massive investment in renewables (figures cover September 2021) 

The National Grid said that the amount of excess capacity expected above peak energy demand was forecast at 3.9GW for winter this year, or 6.6 % of capacity, down from 4.8GW, or 8.3%, last winter. 

This forecast is lower than a winter margin forecast of 4.3 GW made in July this year and also the lowest margin level since the winter of 2016/17. 

However, Fintan Slye, executive director of ESO – part of the National Grid – insisted the system would manage. ‘We are confident that there will be enough capacity available to keep Britain’s lights on,’ he said.  

Forward power prices in Britain are expected to be higher this winter than last year due to the surge in gas prices. 

The Grid said that any days where the difference between the amount of energy Britain needs and the extent of available supply was particularly small could see electricity prices to increase even further. 

The National Grid said the incident at a connector station in Kent had cut the amount of energy that can be imported via the 1FA undersea cable by half (pictured is the aftermath of the incident on September 16)

A map showing the various electricity cables that bring in electricity to the UK from the rest of Europe. The IFA link is seen bottom right in green 

This graphic shows how electricity is brought in from France via the 1FA link. Converter stations are needed to switch converts direct current to alternating current or the reverse, while the connector links it with the National Grid