The millions of Australians planning to have a bet on the Melbourne Cup are watching the city’s skies nervously, with forecasters saying an epic rain bomb is set to drench the Flemington course from late morning.
As racegoers – and the connections of horses unsuited to a wet track – hope against hope that the forecast is wrong, the field in the big race has been cut to 22 with the withdrawal of local runner Lunar Flare.
The horse was pulled out at order of stewards just three minutes before the 7.30am deadline, due to ‘lameness’ in its right front leg, and joins Point Nepean as non-runners from the originally framed field of 24.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s morning update said there was a 95 per cent chance of showers arriving in Melbourne from late morning, with possible hail, and that could develop into a thunderstorm by afternoon or early evening.
Organisers will be hoping the worst of it will come after the Cup is run at 3pm local time.
The chances of a lot of the runners will, literally, sink or swim on how much rain hits the track in the coming hours.
Deauville Legend will start as a strong favourite in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday, but the uncertain weather is one of a few good reasons why cluey punters will be looking beyond the English raider.
Cup favourite Deauville Legend with his English trainer James Ferguson
A massive storm system is forecast to roll in across Melbourne for Tuesday’s race
Those who like to follow Cup precedent like what they see in the horse: he will be ridden by jockey Kerrin McEvoy who is chasing a record fourth Cup win, and he is a lightly-raced northern hemisphere three-year-old – the same profile as recent Cup winners Rekindling and Cross Counter.
And when you consider, he’s run first or second in every race since his debut its little wonder he’s had so much support in early betting.
But at $3.70 in morning betting markets, his odds are probably too skinny to be worth a punt, particularly when you consider the factors against him.
Deauville Legend has never run over the two-mile distance, has never run on a wet track like the one that is expected, and has never experienced the unique factors of the Cup – a huge noisy crowd and a big, tightly packed field.
That’s not to say he can’t win of course – many top judges have declared him as good as over the line.
But for those wanting a bit juicier odds, what are the options? The biggest factor in determining that is Mother Nature.
If the rain bomb hits as forecast, then you should put a big tick beside the names of proven mud-runners like Gold Trip, Knights Order, Montefilia and Stockman.
Whereas the odds of dry trackers such as Hoo Ya Mal, Serpentine, Daqiansweet Junior and Interpretation will lengthen with every drop of rain that hits the course.
Glamorous TV presenter and racing expert Francesca Cumani has flown out for the Melbourne Cup and is tipping favourite Deauville Legend as the likely winner.
The added uncertainty over the weather adds to the standard Cup punting – mixed form lines, horses untested over the distance, and unexposed foreign raiders – so it may pay to include plenty of chances in your quinellas and trifectas.
And if you are sure that Deauville Legend will win – as many are – the best option for a decent collect may be to take an exacta with a long-odds horse running second, preferably one with form on rain-affected tracks.
But of course the question is which one?
For this punter, the value bets are the classy and tough Gold Trip, Smokin Romans with the canny racecraft of jockey Jamie Kah, plus Emissary so long as it doesn’t get too boggy, and Stockman particularly if it gets really wet.
Whether you’re putting $1 into a sweep or laying down some serious money, here’s a guide to the horses that could transform your finances in just over three minutes on Tuesday.
THE FAVOURITES
1. GOLD TRIP
Bizarre to see a horse that’s only won one race in its life be given top weight for the Cup, but it reflects this stallion’s undoubted ability. Stormed home to be (yet again) a narrowly beaten second in the Caulfield Cup then had no chance in the Cox Plate when blocked for runs in the straight. At his best on wet tracks, can he finally crack it for an overdue win?
Gold Trip (nearest to camera) was narrowly beaten in the Caulfield Cup, and that form makes him among the leading fancies for Tuesday’s race.
4. MONTEFILIA
Classy Sydney mare who put in a huge performance in the Caulfield Cup where she was blocked for a run but once clear, stormed home to only be beaten a length. Another who will relish a wet track. Not well weighted and untried at this distance, but this race has been her target all along, and should be at her peak now.
6. WITHOUT A FIGHT
English stayer who has good form around some elite horses over there, winning his past two starts albeit in very small fields. Has very highly-regarded British trainer and jockey, and this big, rangy type fits the profile of many well-performed previous UK raiders. Untried on a heavy track, and the bustle of a big field and tight running.
8. DEAUVILLE LEGEND
Aiming to follow in the hoofprints of Rekindling and Twilight Payment as inexperienced UK three year olds to win our biggest race. Also has the services of three-time Cup winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy, and those precedents have seen him installed as a short-priced favourite here. Cannot knock his form, having finished first or second in all six races since his debut. Beat El Bodegon four lengths last start and that horse then ran third in the Cox Plate. However he’s never run on a rain-affected track, so that is a query, as is how he handles the big noisy occasion at Flemington.
Jockey Kerrin McEvoy will ride favourite Deauville Legend and is aiming to equal the record with his fourth Melbourne Cup win.
12. HOO YA MAL
Sold for $2 million after running a shock second in the Derby in the UK. The finished on almost level terms with Melbourne Cup favourite Deauville Legend two starts back which bodes well. Failed to settle last start and veteran jockey Craig Williams will need all his experience to get this boy to relax and run out the two miles, particularly as he appears unsuited to a wet track.
19. SMOKIN ROMANS
Was favourite in the Caulfield Cup and had a good transit but couldn’t go on with it in the straight, finishing disappointingly. But the silver lining is he’s been given a surprisingly light weight given he had two highly impressive wins prior to Caulfield. Has a slightly tricky gate but to offset that, ace jockey Jamie Kah is aboard.
Ace jockey Jamie Kah will ride Smokin Romans in the Cup, trying to add victory in the big race to her already impressive CV.
24. REALM OF FLOWERS
Unusual preparation for a local horse, as she hasn’t run for a month. On that occasion had a torrid wide trip throughout in the Metropolitan and still was only nosed out of the win, beating home several rivals she’ll face again on Tuesday. Loves wet ground, drawn a nice barrier, carries the minimum weight. Has been a long time since she last won, but a genuine contender here.
OUTSIDE CHANCES
2. DUAIS
Came from the back of the field to finish strongly in the Caulfield Cup, albeit without ever threatening to run a place. That suggests she’s been trained up to run the two miles. Rain will harm her chances – the Sydney mare is unplaced in all four runs on heavy ground. On the plus side, ace jockey Hugh Bowman is back aboard and he’s won three of five when riding this mare.
3. KNIGHTS ORDER
This year’s Sydney Cup winner is a bold front-runner, and used those tactics again in the Caulfield Cup when he was only just caught near the line and ran third. Expect to see him use his early speed to lead the field. The heavier the track the better for this Gai Waterhouse-trained stayer. But he is carrying a relatively big weight and that may be telling late, especially given the work he’ll have to do early from his wide gate.
The always colourful trainer Gai Waterhouse has two runners in the field, the imported Hoo Ya Mal and Knights Order, both of which are considered as strong contenders.
9. STOCKMAN
Likely the fittest of all horses for this year’s race, having had a run on Saturday to keep him sharp after a win in his prior race. Ticks several boxes: he will run out the distance, is at his best on rain-affected turf, and is drawn to get a very cushy run. So he has a lot in his favour, but on class is a grade or two below some of these rivals.
10. VOW AND DECLARE
The 2019 Melbourne Cup winner looked like his career was tailing off but a couple of encouraging runs heading into the Caulfield Cup seemed to signal a revival, and then he ran creditably in that race. He’s a tough, if one-paced, stayer who’s drawn perfectly, but seems to lack that finishing kick these days.
11. YOUNG WERTHER
Hasn’t won a race since he broke his maiden years back, but has run impressively at the top level several times. Wasn’t disgraced in the Cox Plate, running within three lengths against elite opposition. Has plenty of ability, but he’s hard to back with confidence in any race given his non-winning habit.
14. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR
Adelaide Cup winner and Sydney Cup placegetter, so one of the few runners who’s got proven form over two miles. He hasn’t been getting near a win in this preparation, but wasn’t far away last start despite a torrid run. Should be boxing on when others are tiring but will need the rain to somehow avoid Flemington.
Pictured: Trackside revellers watch on at the 2021 Melbourne Cup
17. EMISSARY
Stormed home to snatch the Geelong Cup last start, and that race has been a handy guide to Melbourne Cup chances over the past 20 years. If Flemington can somehow dodge the downpour, this bloke would have to be rated a real chance. But if the rain bomb does hit, it will reduce his hopes.
23. INTERPRETATION
Always been tipped for big things but its getting on 18 months since he last won. That said, he was beaten less than a length in a strong race two starts back and then suffered a leg injury in the Geelong Cup so that’s inconsequential. Gets in with a very light weight but has a poor record on rain-affected tracks.
LONG SHOTS
5. NUMERIAN
Had a dream run in the Caulfield Cup and loomed as the winner on the turn but didn’t see it out. That doesn’t bode well for a horse now trying the two mile test for the first time. Likely to settle nicely just behind the leaders, but it would be a shock if he could out-stay classier horses here.
7. CAMORRA
The winner of the Curragh Cup in Ireland back in June which is the same race that produced recent Melbourne Cup winners Rekindling and Twilight Payment, so that’s a tick. However he faded alarmingly in his only run since, beaten 20 lengths. Would need a sharp turnaround on that effort to threaten here.
13. SERPENTINE
Ran a creditable second on Saturday, so he’s on the up and very fit, but that was only his third placing in 14 career starts. Jockey John Allen paces long-distance races as well as anyone, and will be wearing the familiar silks of owner Lloyd Williams that have saluted so often in this race. Will cross from wide gate to be up the front of the field but his record suggests he’ll struggle to hold on.
The forecast for Melbourne on Tuesday is looking grim, both for racegoers and those horses hoping for a dry track
15. GRAND PROMENADE
Was well backed when he finished a creditable sixth in the Cup last year despite a gut-busting wide run. Needs a dry track to show his best and hasn’t been able to find one all preparation, and won’t get one here. Drawn the inside barrier, loves Flemington, and the jockey-trainer combination thrive together, but the track is against him.
16. ARAPAHO
Iron horse has been in training non-stop since March but keeps on producing gutsy runs in tackling the country cups circuit. Been running consistently well at lower grade, and jockey Rachel King knows the horse well, but not sure he has the class to threaten here.
20. TRALEE ROSE
A geniune stayer who suffered a bad leg cut in last year’s Cup. Ran on fairly in the Caulfield Cup, will be helped by a soft track, and does her best racing at Flemington, so she’s not hopeless. But she’s a notch or two below elite level and will be at long odds.
22. HIGH EMOCEAN
One of only three horses going into the Cup off a last-start win, but that was a modest Bendigo Cup. She’s got a very light weight and likes the slop so if the heavens open, she’s the kind of galloper that could fill a place at silly odds.
2022 Melbourne Cup field
A guide to the 2022 $3million Melbourne Cup, which is run over 3200m at the famous Flemington Racecourse.
Order of entry – horse – barrier – weight – odds – jockey
1: Gold Trip (14) – 57.5kg – $15 – Mark Zahra
Finished second in the Caulfield Cup, loves wet ground. In the mix but total unknown at this distance.
2: Duais (10) – 55.5kg – $26 – Hugh Bowman
Is in a poor patch of form this spring. Can she recapture the heights of her Autumn campaign, winning Australian Cup and Tancred Stakes? Not sure.
3: Knights Order (23) – 55.5kg – $17 – Tim Clark
Horror show in last year’s Melbourne Cup and doesn’t produce his best at this track. Enjoys sting out of the ground, and is in better form this time around.
4: Montefilia (11) – 55.5kg – $11 – Jason Collett
Has been building nicely for this race, and produced an eye-catching run in the Caulfield Cup. Can win.
Montefilia, pictured winning the Ranvet Stakes in March, has been in good form ahead of the Melbourne Cup
5: Numerian (7) – 55.5kg – $61 – Tommy Berry
From the gun Annabel Neasham stable, but don’t think the gelding will make the 3200m trip here. Pass.
6: Without a Fight (18) – 55.5kg – $11 – William Buick
Tough stayer who won’t be happy with the barrier draw. Always in it and will grind out the distance but just needs to find a run. In it.
7: Camorra (17) – 55kg – $51 – Ben Melham
Was absolutely shocking last start in a Group 1 over 2816m in Ireland. Would want the track bone dry, and it won’t be. No thanks.
8: Deauville Legend (9) – 55kg – $3.40 – Kerrin McEvoy
The lightly-raced gelding is absolutely flying and is at almost unbackable odds now. McEvoy has won this race three times and setting up for his fourth.
9: Stockman (2) – 54kg – $31 – Sam Clipperton
Can sneak into a place provided he doesn’t get shuffled back early. Has flippers, which will help, but looks to be outclassed.
10: Vow and Declare (4) – 54kg – $26 – Blake Shinn
The 2019 winner is another few years older but after a flat spot of form is peaking really nicely for this.
11: Young Werther (20) – 54kg – $34 – Damian Lane
Keeps finding ways to lose despite obvious class. Might sneak into the top five but can’t imagine him winning.
Deauville Legend has been heavily-backed to win Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup
12: Hoo Ya Mal (15) – 53.5kg – $15 – Craig Williams
Won’t appreciate the wet conditions and was absolutely smashed last start in England. Can win, but not confident.
13: Serpentine (22) – 53.5kg – $71 – John Allen
Lloyd Williams’ only runner in the race, the gelding might look for the lead – but he won’t be first past the post. No chance.
14: Daqiansweet Junior (13) – 53kg – $51 – Daniel Moor
Has almost nothing going for him here, aside from the weight. Wouldn’t be investing.
15: Grand Promenade (1) – 53kg – $81 – Harry Coffey
Was poor in last year’s Cup and hasn’t gotten any better since. Would be surprised if he gets anywhere near them.
16: Arapaho (19) – 52.5kg – $81 – Rachel King
Huge odds, but don’t mind the generous price. There’s a surprise every year and just imagining he will relish the soft ground. Place?
17: Emissary (3) – 51.5kg – $34 – Pat Maloney
Earned his entry with a surprise Geelong Cup win, and drops 4.5kg from that race. Wouldn’t shock.
19: Smokin’ Romans (16) – 51.5kg – $16 – Jamie Kah
Absolutely flying this Spring and gets the services of one of the country’s top jockeys. Will be in the finish at a nice price.
Champion jockey Jamie Kah will be piloting Smokin’ Romans, and both horse and rider have been in sizzling form
20: Tralee Rose (21) – 51.5kg – $71 – Dean Yendall
9th in last year’s Cup, but struggled with injuries since. Is in better form than that run and has been pleasing to the eye. Wouldn’t shock.
22: High Emocean (8) – 50kg – $51 – Teo Nugent
Cracking ride won her the Bendigo Cup, but she looks to be outclassed in this field. Place.
23: Interpretation (6) – 50kg – $41 – Craig Newitt
Plenty of hype when he arrived in Australia, but has disappointed thus far. Nice weight and will handle the distance, but was ordinary last start.
24: Realm of Flowers (5) – 50kg – $10 – Damian Thornton
Lightly-raced of late, and is proven at this track and distance. At this weight, the gritty stayer will absolutely be in this.
All odds from TAB.com.au and correct as of 12pm, October 31.