Melbourne Cup 2020: Guide to race and why Incentivise is the hot favourite

Let’s be clear – Incentivise deserves to be favourite for today’s Melbourne Cup and there’s no denying the rising local superstar stands out as the most likely winner.

But anyone taking odds below $3 would be brave, considering the highly unpredictable nature of Australia’s biggest race.

There have been 26 runners in Melbourne Cup history that have started shorter than $3.30 and only four have won.

When markets opened, Incentivise was shorter than any Cup runner since the great Phar Lap, which is extraordinary given back in March he ran third last in a Toowoomba maiden.

Incentivise’s trainer Peter Moody led Black Caviar to her extraordinary record of 25 successive wins, so he knows how to sustain a hot streak.

And jockey Brett Prebble is back in career-best form and confident, so no-one will be surprised to see him powering away from the field down the long Flemington straight this afternoon.

But when you consider that every other horse in the race is at odds of $3.50 or better to run a PLACE, it’s clear that the value lies in backing the horses that will come second and third and stand a chance of causing an upset victory.

In narrowing down the options, one key thing to note is that the absence of international runners this year.

Reigning champion Twilight Payment is one of only three international runners this year, along with Spanish Mission and English colt Sir Lucan.

The lack of foreign runners is a result of stringent new standards that have been introduced by authorities aiming to prevent any more of the fatal injuries suffered by imports in the Cup in recent years, which badly tarnished the image of the event.

Most foreign trainers were unwilling to submit their horses to the battery of tests and scans which they must now pass in order to take their place in the field.

Their absence means several mediocre local stayers have made it into the field who would never have made it since the international era of the race began.

Barring any extraordinary form turnarounds, you can put a line through a third of the field.

Johnny Get Angry, Knights Order, Carif Master of Wine, Miami Bound, Port Guillaume, She’s Ideel, Ocean Billy and Future Score have either been doing an extraordinary job of disguising their true ability or more likely are just not up to this standard.

Twilight Payment is ideally drawn in barrier two to attempt a repeat of last year’s rare feat of leading from start to finish, and the resultant genuine pace further reduces the chances of below-par horses somehow sneaking into the placings.

So with nine horses in the highly unlikely bracket, let’s quickly assess the chances of the 14 other runners aiming to beat Incentivise.

Twilight Payment will again go hard from the front and hope to hold off the field but he’s a nine-year-old now and has to carry the top weight so it would be a phenomenal effort to win it again.

Persan and The Chosen One were both prominent in the finish last year and while their lead-up form this time has been more solid than spectacular, they are definitely worth a place bet. 

Spanish Mission comfortably beat Twilight Payment at the Royal Ascot meeting in June but is an unknown quantity in a high-pressure packed Cup field that he will encounter today. 

The other import Sir Lucan fits the profile of recent Cup winners Rekindling and Cross Counter as young imports carrying a light weight – and he also has the knowhow of jockey Glen Boss who rode Makybe Diva to her hat trick of Cup wins.

Explosive Jack – which won three Derby races last season – and Sydney Cup winner Selino have proven they can excel at the top level and while neither has come close to winning since, this is the race both have long been aimed at and prepared for.

There are cluster of handy local stayers who have the strong recent form that suggests they could challenge at tempting odds.

Grand Promenade, Delphi, Tralee Rose and Great House have all had wins in lead-up races this spring and are worthy contenders.

Floating Artist and Pondus haven’t cracked it for a lead-up win but have come close, and could be included in that group with a long odds chance.

One of the hardest to assess is Verry Elleegant. 

On the negative side, she is more of a 2000 metre horse than a two-miler, but she is the most accomplished horse in the race, thrives in tight finishes and the combination of trainer Chris Waller and jockey James McDonald routinely win big races. 

BEWARE THE OUTSIDER

Since the Cup was first run in 1861, four horses have won at odds of 100-1: The Pearl (1871), Wotan (1936), Old Rowley (1940) and Prince of Penzance two years ago.

This year, TAB racing expert Andrew Georgiou told Daily Mail Australia that Selino is the best outsider. 

‘It won the Sydney Cup and I know it didn’t do anything in the Caulfield Cup but that wasn’t its race,’ he said. 

‘To me there’s a query on many horses running a strong 3200m but with Selino, you don’t have that problem, it’s run twice over the distance previously.’  

‘Grand Promenade could be the other one that runs a really good race and maybe troubles the favourite down the straight. It’s got jockey Kerrin McEvoy on board and he’s won three cups.

‘And I don’t mind Persan who’s a stablemate of Grand Promenade, it ran 5th in the Cup last year.’  

TEMPERAMENT AND CONDITION OF THE HORSE 

Mr Georgiou agreed that how a horse looks and how it behaves in the parade ahead of the race can be a highly significant factor in how it will perform. 

‘As good as Incentivise is, if we see him come into the parade tomorrow and he’s sweating, irritated and seems hot and bothered, it’s the last thing you want to see if you’ve put your hard-earned on the favourite. 

‘You want to see a horse coming in at the peak of its condition and being calm beforehand. 

‘It’s 3200m, so you don’t want the horse to gas itself before it even gets to the barriers. 

Equine physiotherapist Tom Simpson previously told Daily Mail Australia that the health of a horse’s coat and its fitness were two qualities that go hand in hand. 

‘That is quite reflective of how the horse is feeling and its general well-being,’ he said. ‘

‘You want to see the horse is peaking for that run. That’s the biggest thing – is it ready for that race? And then their action, the way they’re walking. You want them walking out nice and even.’ 

JOCKEYS

Damien Oliver, Kerrin McEvoy and Glen Boss are the most successful of this year’s jockeys in the big race, having each piloted three horses to victory.

Oliver will ride mid-priced Delphi this year, while McEvoy is on board Grand Promenade and Glen Boss is riding Gai Waterhouse’s Sir Lucan, paying $23 for the win.

Jye McNeil will again ride last year’s winner, Twilight Payment.  

Michelle Payne is the only female jockey to have won the race, taking Prince of Penzance to victory in 2015.

There is one female jockey in this year’s race, Rachel King riding No.15 Pondus.

TAB expert Mr Georgiou said the jockey is rightfully a big factor in whether people place a bet on a particular horse.

‘It’s not often at all that a jockey with very little big race experience wins a race the size of the Melbourne Cup,’ he said. 

‘Its 3200m, it’s not a sprint race or a middle-distance race. You’ve got to concentrate for a long time with 23 other horses jostling for position around you, naturally people will look towards a person who has won it previously.’  

AGE

Four and five-year-olds are the best bet to win the cup, with horses between the age range winning the cup on 46 occasions.

Experts have warned three-year-old horses have generally not yet reached their peak, while those seven years and over don’t compare to younger rivals. 

This statistic works against Twilight Payment defending the crown tomorrow.  

‘Asking a 9-year-old to run 3200m with 58 kg, I can’t see Twilight Payment winning the race tomorrow,’ Mr Georgiou said.

‘Apart from the favourite, 4, 5 and 6-year-old horses are the ones to identify… anything older than that I can’t see it happening, from a statistical point of view.’ 

TRAINERS

International trainers have had lots of success in the Melbourne Cup over recent years but the Covid-19 pandemic has given this year’s a much more homegrown focus. 

Veteran trainer Gai Waterhouse, who trains in partnership with Adrian Bott, has two horses in Knight’s Order and Sir Lucan.

Former AFL premiership-winning coach turned horse trainer Denis Pagan makes his Melbourne Cup debut with Johnny Get Angry.

‘It probably hasn’t sunk in yet and I’ve got probably four or five more sleeps before it comes to fruition,’ Pagan told the ABC. 

Respected trainer Chris Waller has four horses in the race – Verry Elleegant, Ocean Billy, Selino and Great House. 

Mr Georgiou expects punters to gravitate to the trainers they know, such as Waterhouse, Moody and Waller, though notes the record of training duo Ciaron Maher & David Eustace with stayers.

Maher and Eustace also have four horses running –  Explosive Jack, Persan, Grand Promenade, and Floating Artist. 

Irish trainer Joe O’Brien, who won in 2017 with Rekindling and again last year with Twilight Payment, will also be at the track on Tuesday after arriving into Melbourne on Monday. 

WEIGHT

Only four horses have carried 56 kilograms or more to victory since 1996, a statistic that works against Incentivise carrying 57kg on Tuesday. 

Since 1996 the average weight carried by the winner has been just over 53.5kg.

‘In previous years it has paid to look at the bottom of the field, those runners 17, 18 and below that have carried very little weight and come in with international pedigree,’ Georgiou said. 

‘Incentivise is carrying 57kg but has earnt that weight, it’s not beyond the horse to carry that weight. 

‘Lightly weighted horses can feature tomorrow but whether they are good enough to beat Incentivise, class-wise, is a big question.’  

Short-priced contenders Spanish Mission and Verry Elleegant are also at 57kg, while well-priced horses such as Persan, Grand Promenade and Tralee Rose are at 53kg, 52kg and 51kg respectively.

BARRIER AND SADDLECLOTH 

Not everyone puts store in which barrier a horse runs from in a long race like the Melbourne Cup.

‘Personally, it doesn’t really concern me in the Cup,’ Mr Georgiou said. ‘It’s such a long run to the first turn, you’ve got a fair bit of time to find a position.’ 

Defending champion Twilight Payment drew Barrier 2, while Caulfield Cup winner Incentivise will need to overcome a wide barrier after drawing 16.

The most successful barrier in the history of the race has been barrier 5, with eight winners. The Chosen One, a roughie, runs from that barrier on Tuesday.

Barriers 11 (seven wins), 10 and 14 (six wins apiece) are the next most successful barrier draws. Persan, Floating Artist and Spanish Mission runs from those barriers, respectively. 

‘The barrier can matter if you know a horse’s racing pattern,’ Mr Georgiou said. ‘If it tends to run back in the field and it’s drawn wide, then it’s not an issue. If it likes to go forward early but has drawn barrier 22, you might be a little concerned – how much petrol is it going to use to get over the others? Is it going to find a spot? is it going to get planted three-wide?’ 

The most successful saddlecloth is number 1, with defending champion Twilight Payment wearing it this year. 

GENDER

Only three female horses have won the Melbourne Cup in the past 20 years – Jezabeel, Ethereal and three-time champion Makybe Diva. 

But with no mare triumphing since Makybe Diva completed her hat-trick in 2005, it is commonly a man’s world as far as the big Flemington showdown is concerned.

Stallions have been the most successful horse, wining the cup 67 times.

The last three winners have been geldings – two four-year-olds in Cross Counter (2018) and Vow and Declare (2019), and an eight-year-old in Twilight Payment last year.

There are 19 geldings in tomorrow’s field, including the favourite, four mares and five stallions.     

TRACK CONDITIONS 

A Good 4 track is forecast for Flemington on Tuesday, with the Bureau of Meteorology predicting no rain and a warm temperature of 30 degrees in Melbourne. 

While rain is forecast for Wednesday it is not at this stage expected to arrive early on Tuesday afternoon.

The good track condition poses no disadvantage to the favourite but also makes it wide open for the 23 other horses to challenge for places. 

COLOUR

The most successful colour at the Melbourne Cup over the 160 years of racing has been Bay, winning 70 times, including Twilight Payment last year and Cross Counter in 2018. 

The favourite Incentivise also falls into this category.  

THE AMOUNT OF WORDS IN A HORSES NAME 

Horses with just one word in their names have also been the most successful horse, having won 89 times.

If the history of single names proves right, Incentivise, Delphi, Selino, Persan, Carif and Pondus are the horses to watch.

Win, trifecta or quinella bets are the most common bets made on the Cup.

The race starts at 3pm on Tuesday, Melbourne time.